Valuation & Returns
There is no single valuation number for CeibaQ today, and anyone who gives you one is collapsing different questions into one. What you pay now, what the company is worth if the plan executes, and what it could be worth at exit are separate things, and we keep them separate on purpose. The price in this round is a pre-revenue price. Everything above it is analytical or forward, and gated on execution.
What you pay today
The pre-seed is $600,000 on a SAFE with a $4.5M post-money cap. That cap is a ceiling on the price at which the money converts at the next round. It is not a claim that the company is worth $4.5M today. On standard pre-seed methods, the fair value of the company today is about $3.5 to $4M. You are entering a pre-revenue company with no signed contracts at a pre-revenue price — which is the point: the early entry is what earns the return when the gates close.
The four lenses, kept apart
These answer different questions and do not collapse into one number.
| Lens | What it asks | Figure |
|---|---|---|
| ① SAFE cap (today's price) | the ceiling at which this round converts | $4.5M cap · fair value today ~$3.5–4M |
| ② VC-method (return-implied entry) | the entry price that returns a venture multiple on the exit | $33M at 30× · $20M at 50× · $10M at 100× |
| ③ DCF intrinsic (if the plan executes) | the present value of projected cash flows | ~$78M (band ~$67–91M) |
| ④ 2035 exit endpoint (the target) | the nominal equity value at exit | ~$1.0B |
The cap is a ceiling, not a valuation. The DCF is an analytical "if it works" number, not a market price. The endpoint is a 2035 target, not a present value. They are different lenses on the same company.
The DCF: what the plan is worth if it executes
The intrinsic value, on a discounted-cash-flow basis, is about $78M. This is the present value of the company's projected after-tax free cash flow, discounted at a 38% venture rate to reflect how risky an early-stage plan is. Two things make it defensible rather than promotional.
- It discounts free cash flow, not raw earnings. Free cash flow is what is left after tax and after the working-capital drag of slow-paying government clients, so it is lower and harder to argue with than an EBITDA-based number.
- It carries a conservative band. Across a range of discount rates and exit multiples, the intrinsic value runs from about $67M to $91M. The $78M sits in the middle.
This is an "if it works" number. It is not what the company is worth today, and we do not price the round on it.
The 2035 endpoint, and why it is not today's price
The unicorn figure is real but it is an endpoint, not a present value. At 2035, EBITDA of about $77M at a 13× exit multiple is a nominal equity value of about $1.0B. Discounted back to today at the venture rate, that same endpoint is worth about $55M. The gap between $1.0B in 2035 and the price today is the venture discount for execution and gate risk: the first signed contract, the field pilot, the grant. As each of those gates closes, the risk falls, the discount falls with it, and the valuation rises toward the endpoint.
Sum-of-parts: the concession is priced out
The equity is deliberately priced on the data company alone.
- Data company (the equity story): about $78M on the DCF.
- Concession carbon, held in a separate entity: about $31M, valued at a conservative credit multiple and kept off the equity multiple.
- Group value: about $110M.
The investor is asked to underwrite the data company. The concession's carbon value is additional and non-dilutive — upside held in the structure rather than a number built into the price.
What the early money earns
Because the pre-seed enters earliest and cheapest, it carries the highest multiple of any equity in the plan.
| Round | Invested | Entry | Base exit ($270M) | Stretch exit ($1.0B) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-seed anchor (SAFE) | $150k | $3.5M cap | 40.5× · 51% IRR | 150× · 75% IRR |
| Seed | $3.0M | $15M | 9.5× · 32% IRR | 35× · 56% IRR |
MOIC is the multiple of invested capital returned at exit; IRR annualises it. Both exit cases carry a 35% haircut for dilution from future rounds not yet in the cap table. A Series A is optional and not assumed. All figures are conditional on execution.
The two exit cases are deliberately far apart: a base exit of $270M and a stretch exit of the $1.0B endpoint. The pre-seed returns well even on the base case, and the stretch case is the asymmetric upside the early entry is built to capture.
The honest read
The price today is a pre-revenue price: a $4.5M cap, a fair value near $3.5 to $4M, on a company with no signed contracts. Every number above that — the $78M intrinsic, the $1.0B endpoint, the return multiples — is conditional on execution and gated on the first paid contract. The four lenses are kept apart on purpose, because merging them is how nature-tech stories oversell themselves, and we would rather be the company that does not. The valuation rises as the gates close. It is not asking to be paid for that today.