CeibaQCeibaQ
First product of AWAKEN · built for the Amazon

Ceibaq

CeibaQ is the Amazon's reference data layer — built by AWAKEN. We measure the rainforest directly (gas flux, eDNA, acoustics, LiDAR) and fuse two decades of ground data into verified ground truth: the data that carbon, biodiversity, accounting and disclosure standards all need but none can produce. We're not a standard — we're the ground truth that feeds every standard. Build it once, keep it live, and become the data layer no nature-finance player in the Amazon can operate without.

NatureData = CapitalQuantified nature, turned to capital.
Why now

For thirty years, nature finance ran on approximation. That era is ending, from both sides at once.

Carbon, conservation and biodiversity markets put a price on outcomes nobody could actually measure. Two things are now happening together, and they change the game.

The pressure
The market can no longer afford the approximation.

As the money scaled from small voluntary credits to sovereign programs, regulation and institutional capital, the tolerance for numbers that cannot be checked collapsed. The instruments that move real money now need evidence that traces to the ground and survives independent review.

The possibility
For the first time, the approximation can be replaced.

Distributed sensors, environmental DNA, bioacoustics, drone-borne LiDAR and AI to fuse them have matured at the same moment. What was invisible a few years ago, the state of the soil, the return of a species, degradation hidden under the canopy, can now be quantified with a known confidence level.

they converge

A foundational data layer is being built from zero, the layer that quantified nature finance will run on. It has no established owner.

The market is already movingnot a forecast — the contracts, rules and money are signed
Price now moves with proof

The integrity standards the market trusts have started to subtract for uncertainty.

ART-TREESremoved the old allowance that let the first 15% of uncertainty pass for free; now every point of it reduces the payable result
Verrareworked its main forest method to require measured ground data and account for the degradation broad satellite observation misses
Microsoftcontracted a record 45 million tonnes of carbon removal in 2025
Google · Meta · Microsoft · Salesforcepledged up to 20 million tonnes of nature-based removals by 2030
The buyer is now the government

The programs that set the market pay a whole jurisdiction for results, not a single project.

Guyana → Hess$750M — the first country to sell its forest results at the jurisdictional level
Green Climate Fund$96.5M paid to Brazil for cutting its Amazon deforestation
TFFFmore than $5.5B pledged across 53 countries; first payments expected 2028
CORSIAthe airline-emissions scheme becomes mandatory from 2027
Regulation made integrity a requirement

Verified results now move between countries, and proof on the ground is mandated.

Paris Article 6.2country-to-country transfers have begun: Switzerland received the first from Thailand in late 2023, and a new UN mechanism issued its first credits in early 2026
EU Deforestation Regulationfrom December 2026 importers must prove no link to land cleared since 2020, and the regulator states plainly that a satellite alert is not a verdict
The money is already arriving

Capital is flowing into instruments whose return is tied to a measured environmental result.

World Bank$225M bond whose return to investors is tied to verified Amazon reforestation
IDB + World Bank$1B Amazonia Bond program; first $100M raised November 2025
Amazon-linked instrumentson the order of $3–6B a year today, on a path toward $8–18B by 2031

Every one of these instruments needs the same thing underneath: trustworthy evidence of what is actually happening on the ground. CeibaQ is building that layer for the Amazon.

The data layer beneath it all
$240–560M/yr today$1.0–3.0B by 2031
Management estimate. And today, no company owns it.
The prize — headline metrics
$108.3M
Revenue 2035
management estimate
$77.1M
EBITDA 2035
71% margin
86%
Gross margin 2035
repeat-data sales
~$78M
DCF value (if executed)
intrinsic on FCF, not value today
$4.5M
Pre-seed SAFE cap
a ceiling; fair ~$3.5–4M
~$1.0B
2035 exit endpoint
gated optionality, 13×
2028
EBITDA-positive from
first positive year
~77%
Founders after seed
grant case, pro-rata

All forward figures are management estimates pending GATE 0 (the first signed contract). The SAFE cap is a ceiling, not a present value; the $1.0B endpoint is gated upside.

Why the bet is asymmetric
The floor

A data business that needs no government to adopt anything — selling evidence to developers, registries, insurers and corporates. It reaches roughly $49M of revenue by 2035 on the model and stands on its own. If the switch never fires, the floor remains.

The switch

The jurisdictional licence. Once a government adopts the layer at scale, it carries more than half of projected 2035 revenue and opens the path to a billion-dollar outcome. Both the floor and the switch turn on the same first contract.

Lens 1 · Today
~$3.5–4M
fair value today (the $4.5M SAFE cap is a ceiling, not a valuation)
Lens 2 · If executed
~$78M
DCF intrinsic on projected free cash flow
Lens 3 · Gated
~$1.0B
2035 endpoint, gated on adoption

Three valuation lenses, kept apart on purpose. Carbon credits are held off the data company's books, so this is a pure-data multiple, not a carbon-blended one. The full ask and transaction summary are in the next subsection.

Confidential · v1.0by AWAKEN