Financial Model — Detail

The full model is an editable workbook (CeibaQ_Integrated_Financial_Model_5yr.xlsx) with 9 tabs: Drivers · Revenue · Costs · P&L · Scenarios · Valuation · Funding/Cap-table · Unit-Economics · Summary. Change any driver and everything recalculates (185 formulas, zero errors).

Revenue (five streams)

S1 own credits (carbon+bio, 60/40 split) · S2 MaaS (subscription + credit-share) · S3 jurisdictional (per-ha tiers) · S4 data-only (enterprise licences) · S5 royalty (~2%).

Costs (separated honestly)

ROOT — the data moat (~$10.7M one-time + ~$1.8M/yr), built once, largely non-dilutive.
Service-ops — per-hectare delivery as a cost curve ($9/ha early → ~$2/ha at scale), not a flat number.
Land is self-funded from the 60% credit share (no separate land capital line).
Explicit haircuts: Verra buffer pool (~15%), benefit-sharing (~40%), methodology timing lag.

Base case (Y5)

Revenue ~$67M, EBITDA +$15M (positive from Y4), peak funding need ~$30M (mostly non-dilutive).

Scenarios

Base (1.5M owned / 10M serviced) · Downside (slower ramp) · Stretch (5M owned / 50M serviced — the basin-scale vision, gated on multi-jurisdiction expansion; upside only).

Valuation & returns

Conservative 4× revenue → base exit ~$270M; stretch ~$1.3B+. Staged funding means early capital is rewarded most (pre-seed modeled ~30×+ at base). Full cap-table in "Round structure & cap-table".

Built deliberately to survive diligence: conservative multiple, conservative biodiversity, methodology timing carried honestly, no double-counted hectares.