RisksPre-seedUpdated 2026-06-04
Risks & Mitigations
We present risks honestly — every one has a mitigation built into the plan.
| Risk | Why it matters | Mitigation |
|---|---|---|
| Carbon methodology timing (VM0048) | New jurisdictional methodology is still ramping industry-wide → carbon cash is back-loaded | Revenue diversified across 5 streams; carbon modeled from Y3–4 with haircuts; pursue Article 6.2 / results-based paths that don't depend on one registry |
| Tenure / execution gate | Scaling from the 90k concession to multi-site needs permits, FPIC, multi-jurisdiction work | Start on land already owned; staged, milestone-gated build; FPIC and legal opinions funded early |
| Conflict of interest (verify + sell credits) | A data layer must be trusted as neutral | Ring-fence the neutral data/verification entity; independent VVBs verify our own credits |
| Capital intensity | ROOT + scale need real capital | Unbundle the raise: small equity + non-dilutive grant/MDB for ROOT + concessional debt; never one flat round |
| Additionality on protected land | Already-protected forest yields few avoided-deforestation credits | Lean on standing-forest finance (TFFF), Article 6.2, biodiversity and data/verification, not classic avoided-deforestation carbon, on those hectares |
| Market maturity (esp. biodiversity) | Biodiversity credit market is still small | Carry biodiversity conservatively in the base; size off data/MRV spend, not headline credit flow |
| Key-person / single geography | Founder-concentrated today | Senior commercial, MRV and carbon hires are a funded priority; TERI provides institutional depth |
| Free / cheap substitutes | Government & commodity satellite data are free | Sell the integrity / biodiversity / SEEA layer on top, which those cannot provide |
Red lines (non-negotiable)
No Russian or corruption capital; no extractive partnerships; no compromise of indigenous (PIACI) rights or FPIC; carbon/biodiversity integrity over volume. These govern every partnership and deal.